Take a look at this scenario. A young couple are busy consuming their marriage. After some foreplay, they have full intercourse without using contraception. A child is conceived.

 

Now let’s change the scenario very slightly. There is a fly in the room. Its noise is disturbing the foreplay and bothers the husband. They take a slight pause and he rushes to smash the fly, leaving the pleasure on hold for a couple of second. He tramples on a stool and breaks his leg. The sex would take place another day. No child is conceived.

 

Does this really matter? The amount of babies being conceived at this very moment is abundant. One more or less, the absolute majority of the nearly 7 billion people in this won’t even people in this world wouldn’t have noticed.

 

Yet it does make a difference. It can actually change history.

 

What if that conceived child was Adolf Hitler, Michael Gorbachev, Albert Einstein or Osama Bin laden? If the fly had bothering one of these peoples fathers the whole scenario of the world would be completely different.

 

I brought up this analogy in order to explain how ridiculous certain arguments from experts are while these construct elaborate yet superficial conspiracy theories, the latest being the Islamisation of  the world. This theory is based on a single variable – demography. Muslims tend to have more children and migration patters mean they are distributed all over the world. Three continents – Europe, North America and Australia will soon be infected as the number of Muslims spirals. This will happen in 50 years time.

 

These experts are however Mathematics geeks, the kind of guys you’ve seen making love to copybooks in the library while you were fondling your girlfriend in a remote corner. They can make magic with numbers and statistics and are about to tell you what the exact percentage of Muslims to non-Muslims will be in 50 years time. They would have been correct, if numbers and statistics were the only variables. These are the things they know and work with. Probably they thought Congo was a musical instrument before they searched Wikipedia to construct their theory.

 

The other variables are numerous. It could be the fly that we mentioned. It could be much more. These are a few of the millions of variables the geeks are not calculating: Global warming, coups and wars (or the lack of them), genetic engineering, increase in drugs and the construction of new ones, exploring the universe, inventing new more harmful nuclear weapons or have an insane leader of some country who decides to use them.

 

Both frivolous and major changes make the immediate future of the world unpredictable. Yet the geeks are convincing people that in 50 years time Muslims will take over the world.

 

In reality, in 50 years we don’t even know if this world can still be habitable for human beings. Worse still, the geeks might have managed to take over.

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